Chris Orlando
Data Visualization by Peter Majors
Photo Courtesy of Harry How of Getty Images
As the fantasy football season approaches and I conduct my research, I look for two primary factors when evaluating potential breakout candidates: volume and regression. Volume measures how much involvement a player has in a given offense, for example, rushing attempts and targets for a running back and targets and Red Zone targets for a receiver. Regression measures how much a player can either improve or decline based on their performance in previous years. Robby Anderson of the Carolina Panthers is a perfect example of a breakout candidate because of his volume in 2020 and regression potential from his opportunities.
Robby Anderson is a 6'3", 190 lb. wide receiver out of Temple University. The undrafted 28-year-old receiver spent his first 4 years with the New York Jets before signing with the Panthers in free agency in 2020. Anderson had 95 catches for 1,096 yards and 4 TDs, finishing as the WR19 in fantasy points scored. Anderson accumulated these stats with Teddy Bridgewater throwing him the ball, who was traded to the Denver Broncos before the NFL Draft for a 6th round pick. Prior to this, the Panthers had traded for Jets QB Sam Darnold, who was Anderson's former QB in New York. Now reuniting with Darnold in Carolina, Anderson should be in store for a big year in 2021.
Anderson has the potential to become a true target hog in 2021, even with superstar RB Christian McCaffrey coming back from injury. The former Temple star receiver had 136 targets in 2020, which was 8th in the NFL amongst all players and 8th amongst all wide receivers. Anderson ranked 8th in the NFL in target share at 26.3%. However, Anderson only caught 97 passes of his 136 targets and converted 3 of these catches into touchdowns.
Amongst all receivers with 100 or more targets in 2020, Anderson had the 3rd worst TD to target ratio and was the worst amongst wide receivers. If he receives a similar workload in 2021, Anderson should be in line for massive positive regression considering his low TD numbers and catch completion percentage.
If you thought that Anderson's normal target numbers were underwhelming given his volume, he was even more unfortunate inside the Red Zone. As shown on this chart, Anderson was targeted 16 times in the Red Zone, and only converted one of these targets into a touchdown while catching 7 passes. This conversion rate was 3rd worst in the NFL, and 2nd worst amongst wide receivers only in front of Michael Thomas.
It is important to note Anderson's upside compared to other receivers, as he is due for a lot of positive regression while someone like Adam Thielen is due for negative regression. Thielen caught an absurd 13 TDs on just 23 targets, which is bound to regress after a career high in TDs.
If Anderson finishes with just an average red zone touchdown conversion amongst receivers last season (27%), he would have finished as the WR16 in PPR formats. One of the reasons Anderson was not as effective in the red zone last year was the Panthers' overall struggles to score from the air. Former Panthers QB only threw 15 touchdowns in 2020, which was one of the worst in the NFL on a per-game basis with less than 1 touchdown thrown per game.
With Anderson reuniting with Darnold in Carolina, Anderson has the opportunity to improve these underwhelming touchdown numbers in 2021. He is currently being drafted as the WR29 (!) in average draft position as of August 29th. If Anderson finishes as an average wide receiver given his volume, Anderson will be a huge value in fantasy drafts this season. While it is likely that Anderson's target numbers decrease with Christian McCaffrey returning from injury in 2021, Anderson is bound for a large workload once again this season.
Additionally, Anderson earned a huge chunk of the Panthers air yards in 2020. According to Next Gen Stats, Anderson was 13th in the NFL in Average Intended Air Yards , which is "The average passing air yards per target for the receiver by measuring the yards downfield at the time of all passing attempts that the receiver is the target." While fellow WR D.J. Moore was second in the NFL in this category, Anderson should be earning even more of this share with former teammate Sam Darnold now joining the Panthers.
Robby Anderson's player profile highlights a lot useful information about him as a player. Given that he is a 6'3" receiver, Anderson is still one of the most athletic receivers in all of football. The former Temple wide out posted a 4.41 40 yard dash and an agility score of 11.34 (which ranked 37th amongst receivers). This helps Anderson be an efficient and effective receiver after the catch. Of his 1096 receiving yards in 2020, he converted 486 yards after the catch (YAC), which ranked 5th in the NFL amongst wide receivers of 3.6 YAC per target.
His elite speed and athleticism has also led defensive backs to respect his deep threat ability, as Anderson was 7th amongst wide outs with an average cushion of 4.4 yards. Cushion measures the distance between the receiver and the defender at the time of the snap.
The biggest catch for Robby Anderson will be the opportunity for him to reunite with former Jets QB Sam Darnold. According to an article written by Julia Papworth on the Fantasy Footballers blog; In Anderson's last season with New York, Darnold targeted Anderson the second-most on the team at a 22% target share. The Jets also ranked 25th in pass yards and attempts that season, given that Adam Gase (who is known for negatively impacting a fantasy player's performance) was coaching his team. Matt Rhule's play-calling tactics will allow Darnold to air the ball out more than his time under Gase, which will suit Anderson better for his elite playmaking ability.
There is no doubt that Anderson is one of the most talented wide receivers in the NFL. However, he simply hasn't had the opportunity to excel during his 5 years in the NFL. Anderson is currently being drafted 59th overall in fantasy drafts (WR29), and can be a huge steal given his potential volume and regression this upcoming season. Even though the Panthers are getting All-Pro RB Christian McCaffrey back from injury and bringing in rookie WR Terrace Marshall; Anderson is due for a huge workload again in 2021. With Sam Darnold back alongside with Anderson, the former Temple star is in store for a big fantasy season with Carolina in 2021.
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