Chris Orlando
Photo Courtesy of raisingzona.com
Introduction
The Arizona Cardinals have completely revamped their roster over the last three years after finishing with the worst record in the NFL in 2018. After drafting Franchise QB Kyler Murray and adding superstars Deandre Hopkins and J.J. Watt, the Cardinals are poised to turn it around in 2021. One of the biggest changes came at the running back position, as starting RB Kenyan Drake signed with the Las Vegas Raiders this past offseason. As a result, this opened the starting job for Chase Edmonds, a 4th year running back from Fordham University.
Edmonds, still only 25 years old, is a 5’9” 210 lb. back that is known for his elusiveness and receiving ability out of the backfield. The former Fordham running back has shown flashes of greatness in his limited opportunities with the Cardinals. With Drake gone, Head Coach Kliff Kingsbury has named Edmonds as the starting running back for the 2021 season. Aside from some bias of being a current Fordham student and Arizona Cardinals fan, there is a lot to like in terms of fantasy football relevance from the 4th year back. Given his opportunity, the addition of Rodney Hudson, and his Average Draft Position (ADP); Edmonds could be the steal of fantasy football drafts in 2021.
Opportunity
As mentioned previously, the departure of RB Kenyan Drake opens up a ton of fantasy opportunities for Edmonds in 2021. Drake was drafted in the middle of the 2nd round of most drafts in 2020, as many were optimistic of the potential scoring from the Arizona backfield. However, Drake disappointed many of the fantasy managers that took a chance on him, as he only rushed for 955 yards, 10 TDs, and 4 yards per carry on 239 rushing attempts. He also was not involved in the passing game, only catching 25 passes for 137 yards and holding a 5.5% target share.
Meanwhile, Edmonds finished as the RB25 on 97 total rushing attempts in 2020, which ranked 49th amongst all running backs in total rushing attempts. Edmonds only handled 21% of Arizona’s total rushing attempts and 16.7% of their rushing attempts inside the Red Zone. Edmonds is poised to get more carries now that Drake is a Raider.
One issue that arises for Edmonds is that Arizona brought in former Steelers RB James Conner, who is bound to get a decent portion of the Cardinals’ carries. Additionally, Kyler Murray is one of the NFL’s most lethal rushing QBs, as he handled 28.4% of the Cardinals' rushing attempts in 2020. He also had 9 rushing touchdowns on 20 rushes in the Red Zone, while Edmonds had 0 touchdowns on 16 attempts.
However, the Cardinals’ coaching staff have expressed their desire for Edmonds to get more action in 2021. According to RB coach James Saxon, Edmonds, “…is expected to carry the load for the Cardinals. RB James Conner will be used in between the tackles and on short-yardage situations.”
The average number of carries for the top 32 running backs is 193.1. Edmonds rushed for 4.5 yards per attempt in 2020; and if he rushed at the average total of the top 32 RBs (193.1) in attempts at this pace, he would have finished as the RB11!
While I do not expect Edmonds to be this involved in the ground game and his rushing yards per attempt to drop, Drake rushed 239 times in 2020 and still rushed for 4 yards per attempt. Not to mention, Edmonds did not rush for a single touchdown in 2020, so that number can only increase. Edmonds has the potential to be a high RB2 with RB1 potential given a potential increase in workload in this offense and is currently being drafted in the 6th round of PPR Fantasy Drafts.
Even if Edmonds does not receive the desired rushing workload in Arizona’s offense, there is still a lot to like from his high floor as a receiver. The former Fordham star hauled in 55 passes on 70 targets for 402 yards and 4 TDs in 2020. He also ended the year with a target share of 12.5% which was 4th on the team.
While the team did add WR A.J. Green in free agency and WR Rondale Moore in the draft, the team let go of TE Dan Arnold and RB Kenyan Drake. With Larry Fitzgerald’s decision to retire still in question, Arizona could be looking to fill 153 total lost targets (27.3% target share) from these 3 players alone. While Green and Moore should take up a chunk of these targets, Edmonds still has potential for more targets out of the backfield.
Rodney Hudson
One of the biggest additions for the Cardinals in free agency was Raiders C Rodney Hudson, as one of the keys to Kliff Kingsbury’s offense is running the ball behind the center.
According to this graph by NFL Savant, the Cardinals ran the ball up the middle a whopping 197 times in 2020, which was by far the most in the NFL by 34 attempts. According to Pro Football Focus, Rodney Hudson is rated as the best center going into the 2021 season. Hudson finished 2020 with the 7th best pass-blocking grade amongst all centers, while former center Mason Cole finished 42nd.
Hudson has also been ranked the best in that category in every season from 2015 to 2019. There is no doubt that Hudson presents a massive upgrade at a much-needed position for Arizona. As a result, this should help pave the way for Edmonds in his potential breakout season.
ADP
Chase Edmonds is currently being drafted in the 6th round in PPR drafts, specifically 66th overall and as the RB26. Last year, Edmonds finished as the RB25 despite rushing the ball less than 100 times and having zero TDs on the ground. FanDuel and numberFire Fantasy Football Analyst J.J. Zachariason conducted a study on his podcast about analyzing potential breakout running backs, which are defined as players that exceed their average draft position (ADP) by 100 or more fantasy points.
In his study, Zachariason found that breakout running backs are often found in ambiguous backfields or RBs on teams that tend to have two RBs being drafted relatively close to each other. He also found that many breakout RBs often exceed expectations when drafted in the 6th round or later. The study showed that the first RB drafted in an ambiguous backfield has a high chance of breaking out.
According to this chart shared by Sam Hoppen on Twitter, Chase Edmonds and James Conner are two RBs being drafted in the 6th and 9th round, respectively. The reason why many breakout running backs come from ambiguous backfields is that people are unsure of which RB will be more fantasy-relevant in an offense.
If Conner was out of the picture, Edmonds would probably be drafted around the 4th round of all drafts; given that he receives the volume of work he would be expected. However, Edmonds is still the main option in this backfield, yet is being drafted as the RB26.
Conclusion
There is a ton of upside from the former 4th round pick out of Fordham. Edmonds was heavily involved in the passing game a year ago, and he has the potential to be one of the better fantasy running backs in 2021. Given that Edmonds receives a larger workload with Kenyan Drake gone, he has a chance to be one of the best values in fantasy drafts as a current 6th round pick. Along with the addition to one of the best centers in the league, Rodney Hudson, and the offensive scheme he is in, the 4th year running back has the ability to become one of the breakout players in fantasy football in 2021.
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