Chris Orlando
Photo Courtesy of Jeffery T. Barnes, Associated Press
Going into the 2020 Fantasy Football season, there were many questions surrounding who would be the next breakout QB. In 2018, Patrick Mahomes took the league by storm as the late-round QB everyone dreamed of. Mahomes threw for 5,098 yards and 50 TDs, putting up a whopping 417 fantasy points while taking home MVP. Following Mahomes, Lamar Jackson took over in 2019, passing for 3,127 yards and 36 passing TDs. On top of this, Jackson rushed for 1,200 yards and 7 TDs, adding up to a total of 421.7 Fantasy points and MVP honors as well. Fantasy Football players were chomping at the bit to discover the next breakout QB. Many analysts predicted Kyler Murray, coming off a stellar rookie season, to take the jump in his second year because of the combination of his arm talent and rushing threat. Other analysts had predicted Dak Prescott as well to be a breakout candidate, especially in a contract year following an impressive 2019 season.
However, Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen was the one who took the biggest step into becoming the next elite NFL quarterback and Fantasy Football star. The third-year quarterback from Wyoming posted 4,544 yards, 37 passing TDs while rushing for 421 yards, and 8 rushing TDs for 406.2 PPR Fantasy points. While Allen did not win MVP, he was voted as the NFL Fantasy Player of the Year for 2020. With the combination of his much developed passing accuracy, consistent rushing attack, the acquisition of superstar Wide Receiver Stefon Diggs and improvement of Bills WRs Cole Beasley and John Brown, and an improved offensive line-- Allen was able to lead the Bills to a 13-3 record and ride lucky fantasy managers to glory in their Fantasy Championships.
Passing Progression
The entire NFL knows that Josh Allen has one of the best, if not the best, arm talents in all of football. However, there was always the question of whether or not Allen could improve his accuracy and decision-making. In 2020, he did exactly that, leading to easily his best season as an NFL quarterback so far. Allen’s completion percentage jumped 10.3% and his passer rate jumped from 85.5 to 107.2.
According to Next Gen Stats, Allen’s Average Air Yards Differential rose from -3.2 to -1.9 yards per attempt. Average Air Yards Differential measures the difference between average intended air yards and average completed air yards for a passer. Additionally, Allen’s Completion Percentage above expectation dramatically increased from -3.7 in 2019 to 4.6 in 2020. Allen’s overall improvement as a quarterback was the reason the Bills were able to reach the AFC Championship game, and the jump Allen was able to make in one year was nothing short of remarkable.
Rushing Consistency
In standard Fantasy scoring, QBs are consistently the highest-scoring position. But what separates a QB from the rest in fantasy is their rushing ability. There is a reason why QBs like Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson, and other similar quarterbacks lead fantasy football in points scored; their added rushing ability gives them a huge advantage.
Given this chart from RotoBaller, the importance of having a mobile QB on your fantasy roster has increased every year since 2016. The average QB averages 15 Fantasy Points per game in points per reception leagues (PPR/G). Average “rushing points” (Avg ruPPR) measures the number of points scored on rushing attempts for the average QB per season, while Avg PPR/G measures QBs average points per game in PPR scoring.
As shown on the chart, the baseline for average QB points per game has remained consistent since 2000, but the value of Avg ruPPR has significantly increased since 2014. 2019 was a historic year for rushing QBs, and the importance of having a mobile QB could be what makes or breaks your draft in the future.
The former Wyoming QB established himself as one of the best rushing QBs in the NFL during his 2019 season. Allen rushed for a total of 510 yards and 9 TDs for 105 PPR points on the ground alone, which led the NFL even over the historic rushing season of 2019 MVP Lamar Jackson.
However, many Fantasy analysts had predicted that Allen's rushing numbers would regress dramatically. The reasoning behind this was that critics believed 3rd round pick Zack Moss, a bruising running back from Utah, would steal goal-line carries from Allen. Much of Allen's rushing TD success came from goal-line TDs, and many analysts had projected regression from Allen's rushing success in 2019. Although Allen was not as impressive as his 2019 season where he had 105 PPR points on the ground, he still put up 421 yards and 8 TDs for a total of 90.1 PPR points. Allen's rushing ability separates him from being an average Fantasy QB to an elite Fantasy QB, and in this year's case, the best Fantasy QB option.
Improved Receiving Corps
The biggest headline for the Buffalo Bills last offseason was the acquisition of Superstar Wide Receiver Stefon Diggs from the Minnesota Vikings. Diggs finished with 127 receptions, 1,535 receiving yards, and 8 TDs while finishing as the WR3 in PPR scoring with 328.6 Fantasy points. John Brown and Cole Beasley surrounded Diggs, with Brown finishing with 33 receptions, 778 yards, and 6 TDs in 9 games while Beasley had 82 receptions 967 yards and 4 TDs. These stats may not catch the eye of many critics, but they do not take into account the improvement of all 3 receivers from the 2019 season.
Above is a chart of the three Bills’ receivers over the past two seasons using two statistics measured on Next Gen Stats known as Average Cushion (CUSH) and Average Separation (SEP). Average Cushion measures the distance between the receiver and defender at the time of the snap, while Average Separation calculates the separation a receiver creates from the defender measured in yards at the time of a catch or incompletion.
These two statistics measure the space created by the three Bills’ receivers to allow Allen to deliver passes more accurately and effectively without lingering defenders in the area. As shown, all three of these receivers improved in both these categories from 2019 to 2020. Diggs’ CUSH rating increase shows how big of a threat he was for opposing defenses, leading to his WR3 finish in 2020.
However, the biggest impact to the Bills offense may have not come from Diggs, but from the progression of slot receiver Cole Beasley. Beasley drastically improved in DVOA, a statistic calculated on Football Outsiders which stands for the Defensive-adjusted Value Over Average and measures a player’s overall impact on the field through all scenarios during a game. Beasley’s DVOA jumped from 1.3 in 2019 to 19.9 in 2020, one of the biggest jumps from any player during the 2020 season.
Beasley’s DVOA increase was highlighted by his ability to create more space away from the defender, catch passes at a higher rate, and create more yards after the catch in 2020. While Diggs was the huge offseason acquisition and the featured receiver of the Bills offense, Beasley's value was severely overshadowed and his impact on their offense was enormous. Overall, the improvement of Josh Allen’s receiving corps allowed the former Wyoming QB to have the best season of his young career because of their drastic improvement to their ability to create separation and produce at a high level.
Offensive Line
One of the most unnoticed aspects of Josh Allen’s impressive 2020 season was the development of the Bills’ offensive line. According to Pro Football Focus, the Buffalo Bills’ offensive line improved from the 21st best in 2019 to the 10th best in 2020. One of the biggest additions to the Bills’ offensive line was Right Tackle, Daryl Williams. Williams was signed originally to be a depth piece to their offensive line but emerged as arguably their best lineman in 2020. According to Pro Football Focus, Williams is one of 4 RTs to have a PFF grade of over 78 in both pass and run blocking. To put this into context, the other 3 RTs to have done this have all been named to the 2o20 Pro Bowl. Williams was playing at a Pro Bowl-caliber level for only being paid a fraction of the cost of other Pro Bowl lineman ($2.5 million).
The addition of Guard Quinton Spain was also a key piece to the Bills’ offensive line, as he let up only one sack in all of 2020. Overall, their offensive line only allowed 26 sacks in comparison to the 38 sacks they allowed the year prior. Additionally, the Bills allowed Allen to have a lot more time to throw in the pocket in 2020. According to Next Gen Stats, Allen had an average time to throw of 3.04 seconds compared to 2.85 seconds in 2019. The offensive line is often neglected by the performance of the skill players on the field by most football fans, especially with the growth that Allen displayed in his best season as a pro. However, the offensive line was one of the most important factors in Allen's 2020 season.
Conclusion
Many critics did not believe Allen could put it all together and become a top QB in the NFL. Even though it is well-known that he has one of the best arm talents in the NFL, there was always the question of his accuracy. The production displayed by the Bills receivers prevented Allen from throwing in traffic and turning the ball over less, which was something he struggled with in 2019. Also, the offensive line performing at the level they had allowed Allen to feel more comfortable in the pocket for throwing lanes while preventing a potential rushed throw because of pressure. Additionally, Allen’s rushing ability kept defenses on their heels and allowed the Bills to be able to use him as a dual-threat QB, especially in the Red Zone. The development of his accuracy, consistent rushing attack, and the progression of his offensive line and receivers allowed Allen to become the top fantasy QB in 2020 and an elite Fantasy QB option for years to come.
Sources:
www.pff.com
www.fantasypros.com/nfl/stats/qb.php.
www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/wr/2020.
www.rotoballer.com/running-qbs-are-a-necessity-fantasy-football-trends/709257.
“NGS: NFL Next Gen Stats.” Next Gen Stats, nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#yards.