Jaysen Altman
Carson Wentz is one of the most intriguing yet head-scratching players in the National Football League. Although Wentz is widely regarded as one of the most talented quarterbacks in the NFL, his career has been highlighted by injuries and controversy. Over the course of the last five years, Wentz has gone from an MVP-caliber quarterback to a healthy scratch. He has been a part of two quarterback controversies including most recently with rookie QB Jalen Hurts, who started the last four games of the 2020 season for Philadelphia.
Reportedly, the Eagles have permanently damaged their relationship with Wentz and it is rumored he would like a trade out of the “City of Brotherly Love”. Now, Wentz sits as the 8th-highest paid QB in the league, unsure of which uniform he will wear next year. How did things turn so quickly for a young quarterback who looked destined for greatness? This article will look deep into the analytics to determine what “Wentz” wrong. But first, let’s give some background on Carson and the Eagles.
The Beginning
Wentz was taken second overall in the 2016 NFL Draft by the Philadelphia Eagles. As a two-year starter for North Dakota State, he led the Fighting Bison to FCS championships in both seasons. Coming out of college, Wentz had the prototypical look of a modern-day quarterback: tall, big frame, strong arm, and a great athlete. He also had impressive numbers throughout his two years as a starter, especially during his junior year where he started all 16 games and accumulated 3,753 yards with 31 touchdowns. His physical traits along with an impressive resume made him highly touted and he was considered by most to be a top quarterback prospect alongside current Los Angeles Rams starter Jared Goff.
Prior to the draft, the Eagles traded up with the Browns in hopes of landing a franchise quarterback. After Goff was selected first overall by the Rams, the choice for the Eagles became very clear. They selected Wentz with the next pick, making him the highest player ever drafted out of an FCS school. Along with the addition of Wentz, the Eagles brought in first-time head coach Doug Pederson. Pederson was an assistant under Andy Reid for many years and served as Kansas City’s offensive coordinator from 2013-2015. He was considered to be one of the brightest offensive minds in football and was hired in large part to help develop Wentz into an elite quarterback. With this new young and dynamic quarterback-head coach duo, the Eagles had laid the groundwork to become a contender in the NFC for years to come.
Relevant Stats and Explanations
This article will explore Carson Wentz through an analytical lens. Here are a few advanced metrics we will be using to evaluate Wentz.
(Passing Yards - Sack Yards + (20 * Passing TD) - (45 * Interceptions)) / (Passes Attempted + Times Sacked)
Quantifies a quarterback’s offensive efficiency (in the pass game) and also has a strong correlation with points scored.
(Completion Percentage over Expected (CPOE)
(Completion Percentage – Expected Completion Percentage)
Measures a quarterback’s accuracy by comparing their completion % and their expected completion %.
A football statistic that seeks to measure the value of individual plays in terms of points. This is done by calculating the Expected Points (EP) of the down, distance, and field position situation at the start of a play and contrasting it with the situation at the end of the play (Footnote).
On Target Percentage (OnTgt%)
Percentage of on-target throws per pass attempt, excluding spikes and throwaways
Measures the percent of throws a quarterback makes that would have hit the intended receiver.
Bad Throw Percentage (Bad%)
Percentage of poor throws per pass attempt, excluding spikes and throwaways
Measures the percentage of poor throws a quarterback makes.
Average Completed Air Yards (CAY)
Average air yards a passer throws on completions
Average air yards a passer throws on all passing attempts.
Now that we have an idea of the advanced metrics in play, let’s take a deeper look at Wentz’s career year by year.
*All rankings stated are in terms of qualified starters for that specific season*
2016 – The Rookie Season
Carson Wentz struggled his rookie year, plain and simple. Whether you look at traditional stats or at the advanced metrics, Wentz had a tough time adjusting to NFL defenses. He finished the season with 16 TD’s and 14 INT’s while completing 62.4% of his passes. In addition, his advanced stats tell the same story. His ANY/A of 5.09 ranked fifth-worst in the NFL and his CPOE and EPA/Play both ranked in the bottom 10 for starters. Whether it was the inability to learn a new system or the greatly increased competition compared to the FCS, Wentz did not have a good rookie season.
2017 – The Breakout Year
Wentz’s sophomore year featured a complete turnaround from his rookie campaign as he showcased the talent many believed he possessed coming out of college. By week 14, Wentz was at the top of the MVP leaderboard, putting him in an unimaginable position given how he ended the previous season. Unfortunately, a torn ACL against the Rams ended his remarkable season, one which he was on pace to finish with 4,057 passing yards, 41 TD and 9 INT. While these are very impressive numbers, a deeper look into the advanced statistics conveys why Wentz was so successful and confirms that he truly was an MVP-caliber player in 2017.
As this chart shows, Wentz finished the year with an EPA/Play of 0.257, good for second in the league behind only MVP winner Tom Brady. His production was extremely efficient and he made a huge impact on a play-to-play basis. Carson was able to achieve this by playing a super aggressive style of football. His CAY and IAY both ranked 3rd in the league, demonstrating that he consistently drove the ball downfield and generated many big plays for the Eagles. What’s most impressive is that he was still able to maintain a positive CPOE despite having one of the deepest depth of targets in the league. Despite his late-season injury, Wentz demonstrated his ability to be a dynamic quarterback in the league for years to come.
2018 – Regression Begins, Controversy Starts
After a spectacular sophomore campaign, Wentz jumped into the spotlight as not only the future face of the Eagles but the NFL as well. With high expectations and the Eagles fresh off a Super Bowl victory, Wentz produced the most accurate season of his career in which he completed 69.6% of his passes and had a CPOE of 2.9%. Additionally, he was on pace for a career-high 4471 passing yards before he was shut down after 11 games due to a back injury. Despite his improved accuracy, Wentz clearly regressed from 2017 to 2018. His IAY and CAY dropped dramatically from 9.9 and 7.6 to 7.8 and 5.8, respectively. Additionally, his EPA/Play took a hit as his ranking dropped from 2nd in the league to 16th. Both of these statistics show that in 2018 Wentz went away from what made him successful the year prior. He no longer drove the ball downfield as often or as efficiently as he did in 2017, and while his passer rating was still top 7 in the league, he was clearly not as effective of a quarterback in his third season.
Following Wentz’s season-ending back injury, backup quarterback Nick Foles stepped in and won three consecutive games to clinch a playoff spot for the Eagles. After leading the Eagles to a Super Bowl in 2017 and galvanizing a squad that looked as if they had given up on the season, many fans and media members began to question Wentz’s leadership and his importance to the team. They had as much, if not more, success with Foles on the field, and with Foles heading to free agency a QB controversy began to heat up.
2019 – Concerning Trend, Misleading Stats
Despite rumors that many Eagles players preferred Foles as the starter, Howie Roseman and the Eagles front office placed their faith in Wentz as they decided to not re-sign Foles. He instead signed a 4-year deal with the Jacksonville Jaguars, ending the debate as to which QB would lead the franchise into the 2019 season. With the Eagles safety blanket departed, they relied on Wentz to not only return to his previous form but to also play a full season.
The season that ensued featured many highs for Wentz and instilled confidence in Eagles fans and the organization. He was able to play a full season for the first time in three years and carried the Eagles to the playoffs despite losing many weapons due to injury. Some of the best football of his career came in the final four games of the season. He went a perfect 4-0 while completing 64% of passes and throwing for 1,199 yards with 7 TD and 0 INT. Although a concussion suffered in the first half ended his first career playoff game prematurely, Wentz’s 2019 season demonstrated his ability to carry a team with weaker talent and had many Eagles fans excited heading into the future.
A deeper dive provides a much more gloomy outlook on Wentz’s season. His ANY/A (6.26) and EPA/play (0.099) continued to drop from his spectacular 2017 season, and both ranked in the bottom half of starting quarterbacks. In addition, Wentz’s inaccuracy became an issue once again as he finished with a negative CPOE for the third time in four years and an on target % that ranked 8th worst in the league. What’s most concerning with Wentz however is that his IAY and CAY were both middle of the pack for the second season in a row, signifying a troubling trend. What made Wentz an elite quarterback in 2017 was his ability to consistently create big plays, but that had completely gone away the last two seasons. Although many fans around the league may not have noticed these issues that plagued Wentz’s game, heads would certainly start to turn the following season.
2020 – Epic Fall From Grace
Carson Wentz’s 2020 season was unforeseen by even his biggest doubters. While he had shown signs of regression over the previous two seasons, nobody could have predicted such a dramatic decrease in play from a quarterback who was only a couple of years removed from playing at an MVP level. In 2020, Wentz was ranked in the bottom three of starting quarterbacks in all the major statistical categories referenced earlier in the article: EPA/Play, ANY/A, CPOE, Bad Throw%, and On Target %.
According to this chart, Wentz ranked second-worst in the league in both EPA/Play and CPOE. The most inaccurate campaign of his career combined with poor decision-making saw Wentz turn into the least efficient quarterback in the league. What is notable is that Wentz’s IAY rose from 7.9 to 9.1, meaning that he was being more aggressive throwing the football, similar to his 2017 season. With the additions of speedy WR Jalen Reagor and John Hightower in the draft, the Eagles coaching staff clearly put an emphasis on driving the ball downfield, as Wentz and Jalen Hurts both ranked among the top five in IAY. Despite this, Wentz was unable to rekindle his MVP form, instead regressing to one of the worst starting QB's in the NFL. Due to his awful play and with rookie 2nd-round pick Hurts waiting in the shadows, Wentz was benched in a week 13 loss to the Green Bay Packers. Hurts finished the season as the starter, leaving Wentz unhappy and his future in Philly a question.
What Now?
Where does that leave Wentz and the Eagles franchise now? Wentz is heading into year one of a 4-year/$128 million contract, unsure of whether or not he’ll ever wear Philly green again. The Eagles made a huge decision this offseason, firing head coach Doug Pederson and bringing in Colts offensive coordinator Nick Sirriani as his successor. The Eagles front office has continued to vouch for Wentz despite Jalen Hurts displaying many qualities of what made him a Heisman finalist in 2019. With a younger and cheaper option on the bench, should the Eagles move on from Wentz? Would any team take on a player with such a large contract coming off an awful season? Should any teams in the league take a chance on Wentz?
Over the years Wentz has consistently shown his ability to create plays outside the pocket, where he can use his athleticism and strong arm to create big plays downfield. In 2019, Wentz had the highest QBR outside the pocket of any QB in the league and was a way better player when he was in space. As a pure pocket passer, Wentz is a below-average player, as he showed this past season. A scheme change is vital to rejuvenating Wentz’s career; Sirriani or any other head coach Wentz lands with next season must allow him to use his legs to extend plays in order for him to excel in a system.
Despite bringing in Nick Sirriani and potentially a new system, I believe that the Eagles should move on from Carson Wentz. With a young head coach coming in and Hurts showing flashes of his potential, the Eagles should try to focus on grooming Jalen as their franchise quarterback. As for Wentz, I believe the Indianapolis Colts would be his ideal landing spot. The Colts have roughly $65 million in cap space and a huge void at quarterback to fill with Phillip Rivers retiring. Wentz is still a very capable quarterback and reuniting him with his former OC Frank Reich may revamp Carson’s career and bring him back to the level he played at during the 2017 season. Giving Wentz a fresh start with a coach he has had success with in the past is the best scenario for Wentz to succeed and to show the world he can still be an elite-level quarterback.
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