Charles Carey
*All Statistics via Statsbomb and Fbref.com
While Tottenham is among the league leaders in goal scored for this Premier League season, they have become overly dependent on Harry Kane and Son Heung-min. The duo has combined for over 72% of Tottenham’s goals this season. Why is this an issue for Spurs? Both Harry Kane and Son Heung-min suffered long-term injuries last season, proving they are injury-prone. Losing either player would deteriorate Tottenham’s goal-scoring threat, as the next best scorer and assister is Tanguy Ndombele, with 3 G+A through Week 19 of this season. To give some context to that number, Harry Kane and Son Heung-min have 21 and 17 G+A through the same period, respectively.
*Statistics are used through Week 19 of Premier League Season via Fbref.com
This issue is not an especially complex one to solve. Tottenham’s play style this season has been highly defensive, as they have scored most of their goals from counterattacks. This style of play favors quick players, good passers, and great finishers. Tottenham typically lineup as a 4-3-3, with four defenders, three midfielders, and three attackers. The role for 2 of the midfielders is to defend, while the other’s task is to link play between the defenders and attackers. Tanguy Ndombele has been impressive in this role so far this season. The attackers include two wingers and a striker, with Kane at striker and Son on the wing. Both players are among the best at their position and are some of the world’s best finishers. The main issue Tottenham faces is finding a third attacker that contributes nearly as much as Son and Kane.
Using Expected Goals (xG), we can tell how good a player is at finishing. Taking total goals and subtracting them from xG is a useful way of explaining how much a player has over or underperformed. For example, Harry Kane has an xG of 9.9 but 12 total goals. This spread tells us that he overperformed by 2.1 goals. Son Heung-min has overperformed by 5.5 goals this season, the second-most in Europe’s Top Five Leagues. As for their third attacker, Tottenham typically starts with Steven Bergwijn- but Gareth Bale, Erik Lamela, and Lucas Moura also start some games. This Premier League season, Bergwijn has underperformed by -1.7 goals. Bale, Lamela, and Moura have put up lackluster performances as well. The numbers below show that Tottenham has a significant weak link in their attack. Other teams know that they can exploit this weakness, as Spurs have not won a single game in the Premier League when Kane or Son have not scored since July of 2020.
*Statistics are for 2020/21 PL season via Fbref.com
To address this issue, Spurs need to find a specific type of player. Tottenham manager José Mourinho demands that his players are physically fit, disciplined, and willing to contribute defensively. Steven Bergwijn fits all of Mourinho’s criteria. However, this season he struggled with finishing. Tottenham also does not have the financial backing to purchase a world-class attacker. Thus, Spurs need to find a gem in the rough. Assuming they sell Dele Alli, Erik Lamela, or Lucas Moura soon, anything below $40M would be in the budget.
In an ideal world, Tottenham would sign English left-winger Jack Grealish. He is 25 years old and currently plays for Premier League opponent Aston Villa. Since the start of last season, he contributed 26 goals and assists for Villa and has a G – xG of 1.6 goals. The only major downside for Grealish is how much he would cost. This season he blossomed into one of the Premier League’s stars, as Villa enjoyed one of their most successful seasons in recent memory. Transfermarkt estimates that Grealish’s value is $55M, but that price would likely be higher for Tottenham, as they compete with Aston Villa. Since Grealish is well outside Tottenham’s budget, I do not expect Spurs to sign him.
A more realistic signing for Tottenham would be Italian winger Domenico Berardi. He is 26 years old, currently plays for Sassuolo in Serie A. Since the beginning of last season, Berardi has scored 21 goals during league play. He is one of the best finishers in his league, with 2.4 G – xG. Berardi is an excellent passer that would complement the scoring abilities of Kane and Son well. He’s also at a point in his career where he should welcome playing more challenging competition. The last time Sassuolo qualified for European play was during the 2015-16 season. At the same time, Tottenham has not missed European qualification since 2008-09. A player of Berardi’s stature deserves to play consistent European football, and at Tottenham, he would be able to do that. Berardi’s estimated value is $33M, making him within Tottenham’s budget.
Another player Tottenham should target is Portu, the Spanish winger from Real Sociedad. He typically played as a right-winger and excelled in La Liga for the past few seasons. While he is 28 years old, he is a known counter-attacking threat that would fit perfectly into Tottenham’s current system. Since the start of last season, Portu contributed 22 goals and assists during league play. Portu only played European football twice, proving that a move to Tottenham would be a positive step in his career. His market value is only $22M, so that would be a bargain for Tottenham.
The final player that Tottenham should consider filling this role is Silas Wamangituka. Wamangituka burst onto the Bundesliga scene last season, scoring and assisting 26 goals already in his first 34 starts. He is only 21 years old and represents D.R. Congo internationally. He also helped Stuttgart gain promotion to Germany’s topflight. He is known for his pace and dribbling abilities, showing that he is a dominant counter-attacking threat. For such a young player, it is not surprising that his most significant issue is defensive output. However, I believe working under Mourinho would transform Wamangituka into a dedicated defender. Since he is so young, his market value is only $11M, making him very cheap for Tottenham. Stuttgart is currently mid-table in the Bundesliga, only one season after promotion from the second division. Moving to a massive club like Tottenham would be a big step for such a young player. However, training with Mourinho and veterans such as Bale and Son would benefit Wamangituka tremendously.
Overall, it is unlikely that Tottenham acquires any new players this January. Mourinho already stated that he does not expect to sign anyone during this transfer period. However, if Bergwijn’s finishing drought continues until the end of the season, I expect Spurs to bring in someone fresh to compete with him this summer. Any of these players would improve Tottenham’s attack drastically. Tottenham needs a goal threat desperately in the event of an injury to Kane or Son.