Matt Stanzione
*all statistics in this piece are as of September 21, 2021
Below is a very simple player comparison. I’ve lined up the rWAR (baseball-reference WAR) and fWAR (FanGraphs WAR) of two players in 2021. I’ll give you a couple of hints:
One of these players was very recently regarded as a superstar of the game.
Both these players are 26-year-old centerfielders.
That’s all I’m giving you. Any guesses?
Alright, here are the facts: Player X has been worth about 4 more wins above replacement this year than former National League MVP and World Series Champion Cody Bellinger. And that player is Cleveland Indians outfielder, Myles Straw. Crazy, I know, but trust me, these are the correct names filled in:
It goes without saying that an approximate four-win difference is a huge deal in baseball. Add four wins to the Mariners, and they’re in position to end their infamous playoff drought. Take four wins away from the 2019 Brewers, and just like that Jacob deGrom and the Mets have a chance to end the Nationals’ title run before it even begins. Not to bash Bellinger too much, but replace his production with Straw’s on the current Dodgers team, and they’re probably looking at a division title rather than stressing about a Wild Card Game right now. This is a simplistic view of things, but it shows the stark difference in production between two players who have performed vastly different from what was expected of them before the season began.
I think it’s a fair question right now to ask who you’d rather plug in centerfield for the next five years, Straw or Bellinger? Especially when you consider Bellinger’s early-career accolades will keep his salary up through arbitration the next two seasons (Bellinger earned $16.1 million this year, for reference). Additionally, although both play the premium position of centerfield, Straw plays it much better (more on that later). Some around the game wonder whether the Dodgers even tender Bellinger a contract this offseason, though Los Angeles is a smart organization that has the financial might to take a chance on a rebound. I’d be pretty surprised to see him wearing anything other than Dodger Blue next year, but the future is cloudier than anyone could’ve imagined. Meanwhile, Straw will still make the Major League minimum salary next year. This comparison would have been crazy to even entertain as recently as four months ago, yet here we are. But how did we get here? Let’s take a look under the hood of the 2021 seasons these two are having.
Bellinger’s Badness
Below are the ten worst hitters in baseball by wRC+, with a minimum of 300 plate appearances:
That’s right, Cody Bellinger is the second-worst hitter in all of baseball. It’s clear that this is not just a regression relative to the high standards of a great player. We see those all the time. The man Bellinger beat out for his MVP award, Christian Yelich, is a great example. Yelich has a 99 wRC+ this season after posting a 142 wRC+ from 2015-2019. That’s terrible for his standards, but Yelich is still an essentially league-average hitter. Bellinger’s falloff has been much more dramatic.
Before we move on, I just want to note how I will approach comparisons to prior seasons. Specifically, what to do with the anomaly 2020 season as it relates to career arcs and decline or improvement. My goal is to avoid using 2020 statistics whenever possible. While it was great that we were able to get baseball last year, witnessing a full season once again has made it evident that a 60-game sample is simply too small to draw any valuable conclusions.
On top of that, players were subject to extremely unordinary conditions. From the outside looking in, we have no idea how difficult it was playing in a pre-vaccine pandemic with daily uncertainty, brand new protocols, and zero fans. There is truly no way of knowing how much change in player performance was due to actual baseball skills, small sample size noise, and/or pandemic-related issues. Therefore, whenever I can, I plan to avoid using 2020 stats.
Cody Bellinger’s ISO - which measures extra-base hit ability by subtracting AVG from SLG - was an astonishing .324 in 2019. That was 4th best in baseball among qualified hitters behind only Mike Trout, Christian Yelich, and Nelson Cruz. In 2021, it’s less than half of that, as Bellinger is sitting at a measly .132 ISO. Maybe I’m biased after watching the 2021 Yankees ground into the second most double plays in baseball, but when I see such a substantial loss of power like Bellinger’s, my mind immediately goes to ground balls. Bellinger must be pounding the ball into the ground, right? No, actually. Not at all.
Bellinger has actually improved his groundball and flyball rates since his MVP season. However, one aspect of his batted-ball profile we can’t overlook is his line drive percentage. Take a look:
As you can probably guess, line drives are extremely valuable batted ball events. The league as a whole is hitting .684/.679/.891 (334 wRC+) on line drives this year. You can’t hope for much better from a plate appearance than a line drive. Chopping 6 percentage points off your LD% is bound to sap some production, but there’s more going on here than just that. What else is wrong with Bellinger?
The biggest difference between MVP Bellinger and 2021 Bellinger is, without a doubt, his ability - or, perhaps more appropriately, inability - to hit fastballs. Thanks to Statcast’s Run Value metric, we can see just how valuable hitters are against specific pitches. In his MVP season, Bellinger was electric against heaters.
His 4-seamer run value of +22 was tied for 7th in the big leagues. The story could not be more different this year. Bellinger’s 4-seamer run value has dipped all the way to -8, tied for the 22nd worst mark in baseball. It is shocking to see someone’s strength so quickly become their weakness.
Additionally, Bellinger is simply not hitting the ball hard anymore. Two years ago, Bellinger’s 100th percentile, .428 xwOBA ranked 2nd in baseball behind only Trout. Now, his xwOBA is 6th percentile, falling all the way down to a feeble .278 mark. Max Exit Velocity, a metric that is useful in telling you how strong a player can really be, is useful when evaluating Bellinger. The following are his career Max EVs:
Bellinger’s Max EV this year is about 3 mph behind last year (2020 data seemed appropriate to use in this case so I included it) and about 5 mph below his career-high. The drop-off is extremely alarming, but there is a possible explanation for this.
In Game 7 of the 2020 NLCS, Cody Bellinger dislocated his right shoulder on a home run celebration with Kiké Hernández. On November 17 of last year, he got the shoulder surgically repaired. As a lefty, Bellinger’s right shoulder is the lead shoulder in his swing, and surgery on that shoulder is no small obstacle to overcome. As Mike Axisa from CBS Sports has noted, players coming back from surgery have sometimes needed a year or two to catch their breath physically.
For example, Adrian Gonzalez had to change his swing to stay productive after right shoulder surgery in 2010 and Matt Kemp had similar struggles after his operation in 2012. Although neither ever struggled the way Bellinger has, each showed improvement in the years following surgery. While Bellinger’s outlook is less than ideal, other players have gone through similar experiences and come back strong.
In addition to the shoulder recovery, Bellinger has missed time with three separate injuries this season. He’s had problems with his left fibula, hamstring, and most recently, his ribs. Bellinger’s struggles could simply be the case of a banged-up player feeling like a shell of himself. Either way though, Bellinger has seen his best qualities become some of the worst in his profession and has gone from MVP to bench player.
Straw Doesn't [Stink]
Let’s move on to Myles Straw. Not long ago Myles Straw was seen as the Astros’ underwhelming solution to losing George Springer to free agency. Now, I’ll argue that he’s set up to be one of the most recognizable Cleveland Guardians in the near future.
Entering 2021, Myles Straw had accrued just 0.8 career fWAR and was slashing .246/.327/.322 (82 wRC+) across three partial seasons. Sure, he could play some solid defense at five different positions (5 career OAA at 2B, SS, and all three OF positions), but a player hitting 18% worse than league average is just not going to get everyday playing time for a non-tanking team. Straw’s competitive environment to start 2021 was anything but tanking, as the Astros were, and remain, a big threat in the American League. But at the trade deadline, the Astros moved Straw to Cleveland in a deal not many saw coming. The Astros, despite their well-known recent history, are a smart organization, so the baseball community always gets weary about a player they trade away. I’m not going to overthink this though. Straw is good, and here’s why.
In a baseball landscape where power is all the rage, Myles Straw puts up WAR in a different way. Defense, speed, and just enough offense. If you noticed from his slash line earlier, Straw is a member of the exclusive OBP > SLG Club. That’s stayed true this season, as Straw’s .348 OBP is greater than his .341 SLG. In case it wasn’t obvious, Straw’s offensive profile is not going to light up the Baseball Savant page. He simply does not put much thump into the baseball, as his hard-hit rate is 2nd percentile this season. Hilariously enough, Straw’s 109.8 mph Max Exit Velocity is actually better than Bellinger’s 107.4 mph mark from above. But make no mistake, Straw’s not in the box to hit tape-measure homers.
Instead, Straw just tries to get on base any way he can to utilize his blazing speed. Statcast measures Straw’s sprint speed at 29.3 feet per second, which is in the 96th percentile of the league. In his cups of coffee between 2018 and 2020, Straw had a very good 10.7% walk rate, but we can often be deceived by small samples. In 2021, Straw has proven that his eye is legit, with a 10.9% walk rate in 587 plate appearances, good for a top-36 walk rate in the game.
Straw is able to walk so much due to his ability to be disciplined in the box, as his chase rate is just 19.4%, a mark in the top 7% of the league. When you put it all together, Straw’s been able to improve to a 96 wRC+ over this full season. That’s below-average production overall, but actually above average for the centerfield position which has collectively hit .241/.312/.402 (94 wRC+) this year. A guy with Straw’s lack of power and sensational speed needs to find a way on base. Luckily for Straw, his impeccable eye gives him the on-base ability to be a slightly above-average offensive contributor relative to his position.
Now let’s get to the fun part. Straw centerfield defense has been unbelievable this year. Straw’s defense is what makes him a player Cleveland sees in its long-term plans. As I mentioned, Straw had previously played all over the diamond in a bit of a super-utility role with the Astros. But this season, he’s found a home in centerfield, playing all 1237 of his defensive innings there. Straw has stuck in center for good reason too. This year, Straw’s 13 OAA trails only Michael A. Taylor of the Royals among centerfielders. Straw is especially elite at grabbing fly balls that take him back, as his 8 OAA going back leads the majors. Defensive metrics still lag behind offensive ones, but Statcast’s OAA is as good as it gets and it loves Myles Straw. Intuitively, his good OAA grades make sense too. We’re talking about a player with 96th percentile speed getting everyday experience in the same position for the first time. Straw’s defensive success lines up.
So What Does It All Mean?
Between Cody Bellinger and Myles Straw, we have two players going in completely opposite directions in their career arcs. Bellinger has fallen from MVP to one of the worst players in the game. Myles Straw went from fringe fourth outfielder type to productive regular at a premium, up-the-middle position. Set their career numbers next to one another without names and some would probably take their chances with Straw rather than Bellinger going forward. But baseball never rests. If we could find ourselves in a world where Myles Straw is 4 wins better than Cody Bellinger, we could just as easily soon wake up in a reality where the script reverts back. For the moment though, Straw deserves praise for earning everyday playing time and Bellinger deserves a chance at a rebound. Baseball will be better if both these players find success.
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