Anthony Bartiromo
Intro:
The 2023 Tampa Bay Rays are off to one of the hottest starts in MLB history. After tying the major league record for consecutive wins to start a season at 13, they have shown no signs of slowing down, as they currently have the best record in Major League Baseball at 19-3. The Rays have dominated with both hitting and pitching, which is surprising considering their low offensive expectations coming into this year. One player, in particular, has made a big jump for the Rays and is a big reason for their success. That player is corner infielder Yandy Diaz.
The Rays:
Two years removed from an AL Pennant, the 2022 Tampa Bay Rays were a mess. Fresh off a disappointing end to a 100-win season, injuries derailed them, and they snuck into the postseason with 86 wins just to get swept and have their offense silenced by the Cleveland Guardians. Coming into the 2023 offseason the Rays desperately needed some offensive help. So what did they do? Nothing. It wasn’t as bad as it sounds though. They were expected to get healthy, bounce-back years from their double-play combo of Wander Franco and Brandon Lowe. They still also had solid pieces in Randy Arozarena, Isaac Paredes, and Harold Ramirez. Nonetheless, the Rays were still seen as an afterthought in the loaded AL East. They were expected to be once again carried by their stellar starting pitching and lockdown bullpen.
Who is Yandy Diaz:
Yandy Diaz has always been one of the best leadoff hitters in baseball. Combining elite plate discipline, hard hits, and low strikeouts made him a very underrated part of the Rays lineup. From 2020-2022 Diaz sat at 8th in the MLB with a 13.7% BB%.
That mark is elite and puts him ahead of players like Freddie Freeman, Aaron Judge, and Brandon Nimmo. Diaz also has very impressive strikeout numbers; in that same time frame, he has the 12th lowest K%, at 13.1%, ahead of players like Jose Ramirez, Juan Soto, and Mookie Betts.
As you can see from both these leaderboards, Diaz is the only one to appear on both. You can also see that strictly walking or striking out at a good rate does not always equal positive offensive production. Diaz’s ability to do both at an elite level allows him to give the Rays consistent offensive production. Pitchers also struggle facing Diaz since it is so difficult to get him out. He’s a patient hitter who won’t chase pitchers’ pitches and will take his walks. When Diaz does hit the ball, he hits it extremely hard, as in 2022 he ranked in the 93rd percentile for average exit velocity and 95th percentile for max exit velocity.
Diaz has always hit the ball hard, as over his last two years he finished 69th and 14th in the league for average exit velocity. Specifically in 2022, Diaz finished ahead of players like Bryce Harper, Corey Seager, and the NL MVP Paul Goldschmidt. All and all Diaz has been one of the most consistent pieces for the Rays recently, as he has produced a .383 OBP and a 130 wRC+ from 2020 to 2022. These numbers are very good, but there is one part of Diaz’s game that he finally fixed this year.
How can Diaz improve?
So if Yandy Diaz walks at an elite rate, doesn’t strike out, and hits the ball hard consistently where could he improve his game? The answer is his launch angle. For most of his career, Yandy Diaz’s launch angle has severely diminished his power potential. For 2021 and 2022, Diaz had an average launch angle of 6.6 and 7.7 respectively. For reference, hitters typically want to have an average launch angle between 10 and 25 degrees, as a ball hit at that angle is typically a line drive. Diaz’s lower launch angle obviously thwarted his power, as his hard hits were constantly hit on the ground. This gets him in trouble with runners in scoring position as he often grounds into double plays instead of hitting line drives into the gaps.
This year, however, Diaz has raised his launch angle to 13.8%, significantly higher than the MLB average of 12.1%. This has allowed Diaz to sport a .280 ISO in the early going, which places him in a tie for 19th in the league with Yordan Alvarez. This is also the first time since 2019 that Diaz’s ISO has been above .200.
One of the keys to why Diaz has been able to increase his launch angle this year has been adjusting to fewer fastballs. In 2021 and 2022 Diaz received 64.1% and 61.1% fastballs respectively. This year that number is down to 52.6%, with breaking balls taking a 5.6% increase. Diaz subsequently raised his launch angle on breaking balls from 10 degrees to 16 degrees and is currently slugging .714 on breaking balls this season.
Pitchers haven’t been changing where they attack Diaz this season, more so they’ve been changing what they throw him, and he has taken full advantage of it. An increase in power from Diaz is exactly what the Rays needed, as they are a team that desperately needed a power hitter coming into this year.
How much does this help the Rays?
While Diaz isn’t the only player on the Rays enjoying a hot start to the season, it is hard to say how much Diaz specifically is helping Tampa. The Rays as a whole currently lead MLB with a 153 wRC+, which is a massive upgrade from last year’s team, (101 wRC+). The biggest part though is the power. The 2022 Rays virtually had no power hitters, as their leader in slugging percentage was Randy Arozarena with a .445 SLG and 20 homers. The Rays as a team also finished 25th in the league with a .377 SLG. Simply put, the Rays needed someone on the team to break out and hit for more power. While Diaz isn’t the only player on the Rays to break out this year, he stands out due to his impressive peripherals and history.
Is this sustainable?
While it is extremely early in the season, the stats indicate that this kind of production is sustainable for Yandy Diaz. Since 2019, Diaz has been one of the most consistent hitters in terms of quality of contact, consistently being in the top 10% of average exit velocities. We know that Diaz will continue to hit the ball hard.
As for his launch angle, it is difficult to say for sure but the signs do point to this being sustainable for a couple of reasons. First of all, Diaz has improved his launch angle before, just not to the degree he has this year. Excluding 2020, where he played half the season, Diaz has been able to improve his launch angle by an average of 1.8 degrees every year since his 2017 rookie season.
This shows that this has been something that Diaz has worked on in past offseasons and is looking to improve. Another reason that shows that this is sustainable is that we’ve seen players do this before. There are many cases where a player is hitting the ball hard but not lifting it enough to get the success they should.
Perhaps the most notable example of this is Blue Jays first baseman, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Ever since his rookie season in 2019 Guerrero has always had massive potential for power but struggled with his launch angle. In 2021, he improved his launch angle from 4.6 to 9.4 and hit 48 homers with a .601 SLG. While Yandy Diaz will most likely not hit 40 homers in a season, it shows these kinds of struggles happen often and are fixable. Overall, this impressive start seems to be sustainable for Diaz going forward.
What’s next for Diaz and the Rays?
The Rays show no signs of slowing down in this early season. They’ve seen strong outputs from their offense, starting pitching, and bullpen with barely any major flaws. While they certainly do not expect to be as dominant as they are now for a full season, it is huge for them that they’ve gotten off to such a hot start. In a division as tight as the AL East they know just how important each game is. For Diaz, he just needs to lift the ball consistently and he will continue to find success, as it is clear he will continue to hit the ball hard. It’ll be exciting to see how Diaz and the Rays fair the rest of the season in the packed AL East.
Sources:
Fangraphs
Baseball Savant