Anthony Bartiromo
From 2018 to 2019, Milwaukee Brewers left fielder Christian Yelich was one of the best players in Major League Baseball. Yelich posted back-to-back years of 7+ fWAR and 165+ wRC+. He also tallied two silver sluggers and an MVP award. Fast forward to 2022, the lefty is a shell of his former self, with a 109 wRC+ and just a 4.5 fWAR since 2020. What happened? Yelich is only 30 years old and should still be in the prime of his career. A dive into the advanced metrics can help explain what truly happened to the former MVP.
Injuries are a big part of athletic performance in any sport, and Christian Yelich has not been immune from this reality. Since the end of 2019, Yelich has dealt with various back and knee injuries that have sidelined him multiple times. These injuries have impacted Yelich’s production, but not to this degree. There have to be other factors that have contributed to the downfall of Yelich.
From 2018 to 2019, Yelich had a slugging percentage of .631. That number led all left fielders and was second to Mike Trout (.637) for the entire league. Yelich also had a .304 ISO, which led all left fielders and was second to Mike Trout (.335) for the whole league. In fact, Yelich and Trout were the only players in the MLB to have an ISO above .300 from 2018-2019.
What has happened since? From 2020 on, Yelich has only a .393 slugging percentage. That number puts him 14th among left-fielders. His ISO (.146) isn’t great either, as it puts him 13th among left-fielders. Yelich has looked more like a replacement-level player than an MVP during that span.
So Yelich’s power is gone. Yes, but it more than that. Yelich hasn’t been barreling the ball as much as he did in his MVP days. In 2019, the best year of his career, Yelich was in the 97th percentile in barrel percentage. In 2021, that number dropped to the 42ndpercentile. Fewer barrels mean fewer balls hit to the gaps and bleachers.
Comparing Yelich’s percentiles from his MVP days to his current days, there is a distinct difference in the quality of contact that Yelich is making. He is still capable of hitting the ball as hard as he used to, as his hard-hit percentage is still top-notch. The problem, though, is that his barrel percentage has decreased significantly. This is because of his poor launch angle.
Perhaps the biggest reason for Yelich’s struggles is his launch angle. For power hitters, combining hard hits with high launch angles is everything. Launch angle is the difference between a ball hit 115 MPH for a groundout and the same ball hit into the second deck for a grand slam. A desired average launch angle is around 10-25 degrees as those angles are typically line drives.
Mike Trout combines a high average launch angle with elite barrel percentage to be one of the best power hitters today. A little bit down the leaderboard is Rougned Odor, who consistently hits fly balls but with few barrels. This makes for a lot of pop-ups and routine fly balls. During Yelich’s 2019 season, he had an average launch angle of 11.3, with a 93.3 average exit velocity. He was constantly crushing the ball in the air, which is one of the reasons why he hit 44 homers that year.
Fast forward to 2021, Yelich’s launch angle is 2.8, with an average exit velocity of 91.0. He is still hitting the ball hard, but he isn’t lifting it. Many hard-hit groundouts are the result of this.
An excellent example of this is the difference between Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s 2021 and 2022 seasons. In 2021, Guerrero Jr. had an average launch angle of 9.4, with a 55.2% hard-hit percentage. That hard-hit percentage was in the top 2% of the league. In 2022, Guerrero Jr. has a 4.4 launch angle and a 51% hard-hit percentage (top 4% of the league). While this isn’t the only reason for it, it is a big part of why Guerrero Jr.’s wRC+ dropped from 166 to 135. In short, power hitters must hit the ball in the air if they want to be effective.
Another factor that has thwarted Yelich’s power is the shift. As a lefty, Yelich is bound to be affected by the shift in today’s game. As Yelich’s power surfaced in 2018 and 2019, defenses began to take notice and shift on him more consistently. As you can see, the percentage of at-bats where Yelich was shifted has generally increased throughout his career.
This is a large area of concern for someone like Yelich, who has problems with launch angle. More hard-hit grounders into the shift mean more routine groundouts and fewer singles and doubles to the gap. As a result, Yelich changed his approach at the plate.
This is not the first time Christian Yelich saw his production at the plate change. Early in his career in Miami, Yelich was more of a contact hitter. Yelich posted a .290/.369/.432 slash line in his five years in Miami. Obviously, from 2018-19 he posted impressive power numbers, but since then, he has shifted to a more patient approach at the plate.
This graphic shows how Yelich has been taking the first pitch of his at-bats much more frequently. In 2022, Yelich has dropped his first pitch swing percentage by almost 10 points from 2019. This approach has led to a walk rate of 14.6% from 2020-22, the best stretch of his career in this stat. Yelich hasn’t just been taking the first pitch of his at-bats, but he has also been taking pitches in different locations more often.
When comparing the pitch locations Yelich receives, he has taken pitches in the heart of the zone 9% more often in 2022 than in 2019. He has also been taking pitches in the shadow of the zone 7% more often in 2022 than in 2019. As Yelich’s power has diminished with the shift, launch angle, etc., he has transitioned to a more patient approach to get on base at an impressive clip.
What does this mean for the future? Once again, Yelich is still capable of hitting the ball as hard as anyone, but he doesn’t lift the ball, making him less effective. This is a problem for a Brewers team devoid of offense every year. If Yelich can find his power stroke, this would take this Brewers team to the next level with their elite starting pitching trio of Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta. Will this happen? The short answer is it’s possible.
Yelich did hit a ball 499 feet this year and currently has a 113 wRC+ for the 2022 season. With the shift banned in 2023, we could see Yelich turn back to his MVP form. His current launch angle does not project an abundance of power for him, so changes must be made if Yelich wants to hit for power again. Yelich is also 30 years old and isn’t getting any younger. Nevertheless, Christian Yelich will continue to be at least an above-average hitter who can change his approach when needed.
Sources:
Fangraphs
Baseball Savant