Chris Orlando
Data Viz By Peter Majors
When you think about the most explosive offensive weapons from the 2021 fantasy football season, you may think of Cooper Kupp’s historical receiving stats or Jonathan Taylor’s rushing dominance. However, a name that is not talked about enough is the historically efficient season of San Francisco 49ers’ wide receiver Deebo Samuel.
Deebo Samuel is a 26-year-old wide receiver from the University of South Carolina. He was drafted in the 2nd round (36th overall) of the 2019 NFL Draft and has been a focal point of the 49ers offense since his debut in Week 1 of the 2019 season.
Despite being such a dynamic wea[pon in terms of rushing and receiving, Samuel has never been known as a freak athlete. He ran a 4.48 40 yard dash time at the combine, which is exactly average among combine players at the receiver position. Samuel’s lack of speed did not stop San Francisco from utilizing him for his exceptional elusiveness as a ball carrier, though. The third-year receiver from South Carolina had an unforgettable season in both receiving and rushing categories.
Samuel finished 5th in the NFL with 1,405 receiving yards and placed 2nd amongst wide receivers with 14 total touchdowns, 8 of them being on the ground. He also finished 1st amongst wide receivers with 365 rushing yards. Needless to say, Samuel was a universal weapon for Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers’ offense.
On top of this, Samuel finished as the fantasy WR2 in Half-PPR scoring, bringing tremendous value for fantasy owners who had an average draft position (ADP) in the 7th round (75th overall). Samuel’s key to success in 2021 came from his efficiency running after the catch. Despite only having 77 catches (21st amongst receivers), Samuel still finished 5th in receiving yards.
According to PlayerProfiler, Samuel also only had 971 air yards (36th amongst receivers) with an average target distance of 8.1 (87th amongst receivers). Despite this, Deebo was 1st amongst receivers with 18.2 yards per reception and 11.7 yards per target. This is because of Samuel's explosiveness after the catch, as he was 2nd in the NFL with 777 yards after the catch (YAC).
Based on this chart, Samuel has been a dominant force after the catch in 2021. The X-axis depicts yards after catch per reception amongst receivers with over 100 targets, in which Samuel averaged a whopping 10.4 yards. Meanwhile, the Y-axis shows the average yards after catch above expectation according to Next Gen Stats, in which he averaged 5.2 yards.
According to SIS Data Hub, the former South Carolina Gamecock has the most yards after catch per reception over a season in the last five seasons (min 100 targets).
Take a look at this chart via Next Gen Stats from Week 16 against the Titans where Samuel had 9 catches for 159 yards. The majority of Samuel’s yards come from after the catch, where Kyle Shanahan loves to run him on crossing patterns.
While Samuel does not often create the most separation off of his initial routes, he is often able to break away from his defenders with his elusive ball carrier moves and vision after the catch. Samuel’s efficiency as a receiver has been nothing short of incredible, and it is only his third season in the league.
On top of Samuel’s efficiency after the catch, the former 2nd round pick has been impressively efficient as a runner when Kyle Shanahan calls his number. According to this graph by Tej Seth on Twitter, Samuel has been one of the most efficient runners amongst all runners in the NFL.
The X-axis displays the Expected Points Added, which is a metric that measures how a team’s Expected Points changed on a given play. The Y-axis shows the Rushing Yards over Expected Per Rush, which uses down, distance, yard line, defensive alignment and offensive line grades to determine the number of yards an average running back would gain in a given situation.
Thus, Samuel is amongst the elite class of rushers in Rushing Yards Over Expected Per Rush and just about doubles the next best qualifier in EPA per rush. Deebo Samuel’s involvement in the 49ers offense has stemmed mainly from runs outside the tackle. As you can see from this video from PFF Fantasy Analyst Ian Hartitz on Twitter, Samuel’s utilization came from jet sweeps and outside zone runs.
In fact, according to NFL Savant, the 49ers have the second most rushes outside the tackles this season with 124. Kyle Shanahan has made use of not just Samuel, but also their speedy rookie running back Elijah Mitchell - behind the likes of their talented run blockers in All Pro tackle Trent Williams, Pro Bowl fullback Kyle Juszczyk and Pro Bowl tight end George Kittle.
Not only has Samuel’s season been historic during the regular season, but it’s paying off for the 49ers in the playoffs. After his 110 scrimmage yards in their win at the 3rd seed Dallas Cowboys, Deebo Samuel joins Lenny Moore as the only player in NFL history to average over 75 receiving yards and 25 rushing yards per game over a season (including playoffs).
Samuel’s versatility as both a rusher and receiver has brought him into the conversation of being one of the league’s best receivers, and his spectacular play has led the 49ers to a divisional round playoff appearance against Green Bay Saturday night.
Sources: