Matt Stanzione
*Please note all statistics in this piece are as of September 2, 2020.
In the baseball world, Colin Moran is mostly known for being part of a disappointing trade for the Pirates. On January 13, 2018, Pittsburgh sent their former No. 1 overall pick and franchise star, Gerrit Cole, to the Houston Astros in exchange for a package of young players that included the third baseman Moran. The results of the trade have been troublesome for the Pirates to say the least.
Since being traded to Houston, Gerrit Cole has established himself as one of the best pitchers in the sport. Between 2018 and 2019, Cole threw 412.2 innings to a 2.68 ERA. His 2.75 xFIP suggests that this run was anything but lucky. Only Chris Sale had a better xFIP over that span. Cole’s 13.4 fWAR made him the third most valuable pitcher in the game over his time in H-Town, behind only Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer. Cole was so successful after leaving Pittsburgh that he not only landed the richest pitching contract in history in free agency but beat the previous record by $79 million.
Meanwhile, the Pirates’ return has not been so impressive. In that same two year span, the four players the Pirates acquired have combined for 6.6 fWAR. To be fair, Joe Musgrove, the main piece of the deal, has established himself as a solid starter contributing 5.5 fWAR over the past two seasons. But the rest, including Moran, have been disappointing. As a Pirate, Moran had hit a combined .277/.331/.419 before 2020. His 101 OPS+ over that time period meant that he was just 1% better than the league average hitter. For a player that plays the traditionally offense-heavy positions of third and at first, that doesn’t cut it. But something has changed. Through 293 games and 968 plate appearances as a Pirate before 2020, Moran was worth 0.8 fWAR. But after just 25 games and 98 plate appearances this season, Moran has already been worth over half that total (0.5 fWAR). Incredible! Even keeping in mind that this new performance takes place over an extremely small sample, that is very impressive. So what’s responsible for The Brand New Colin Moran?
According to Statcast, Colin Moran is hitting the baseball extremely hard in 2020. Statcast records batted ball data and has a collection of metrics measuring expected batted ball results. This is a massive change for Moran, as he previously profiled as a player in the bottom half of the league in many of these metrics. In 2019, Moran’s average exit velocity was 88.2 MPH, which ranked him 181st of the 250 players with enough batted ball events to qualify. His hard-hit rate was 28th percentile and his xSLG and Barrel% were both middle of the pack at 46th percentile and 44th percentile, respectively. A barrel, simply put, is a ball that Statcast says was absolutely crushed. A typical barrel has a minimum exit velocity of 98 MPH and launch angle range between 26 and 30 degrees, according to the Statcast definition.
As of this writing, Moran ranks 17th in baseball with 17.7% of his plate appearances resulting in a barrel. That’s up from just 5.2% last season, which ranked 133rd of the 250 qualifiers. With more barrels comes even more exit velocity prowess. So far in 2020, Moran’s xSLG is 93rd percentile, his hard-hit rate is 87th percentile. Moran's average exit velocity has improved 5 MPH from last year to 93.2 MPH, which is tied with slugger Marcell Ozuna for 10th best in baseball. Interestingly enough, that is also the second-largest average exit velocity year-to-year gain in the game, behind only San Diego phenom, Fernando Tatis Jr.
*Image courtesy of Daren Willman on Twitter (@darenw)
It is no exaggeration to say that Colin Moran is not only one of the most improved players in baseball, but one of the scariest hitters as well. He is hitting the ball extremely hard, and when you hit the ball hard, good things tend to happen.
The one giant caveat with Moran’s performance: he's barely reached the 100 plate appearance benchmark. Small sample sizes can play tricks on people, and it is too early to determine if this is a true breakout for Moran. However, the early signs are extremely encouraging. Moran had always been a below-average exit velocity player since he debuted in 2016, and suddenly he’s top-20 in the league in barrel rate? Something truly groundbreaking could be going on here. For Pirates fans, there is at least a new hope that they actually received more than they thought they did from the Astros for Gerrit Cole. And considering the state of the Chris Archer trade, Pirates fans sure do need hope.
Sources
@darenw Twitter