Connor Dwyer
Major League Baseball Average RHP Total Break Chart
For decades, a “good pitcher” was considered someone with a high-velocity fastball who got hitters to chase their breaking pitches. Scouts would gather around the backstop with their radar guns, trying to find the next best, hard-throwing arm. The closer to 100 mph the pitcher threw, the more attention he demanded. Although high-velocity fastballs are still coveted in today’s game, the analytics revolution has allowed players to develop their arsenal in a way so that they can succeed without a plus fastball. Thanks to tools like Rapsodo, coaches have started emphasizing the importance of diverse movement profiles between pitches. When evaluating a typical Rapsodo print-out, the average vertical and horizontal break for each pitch type is plotted on an x-y graph. The goal being, for pitchers to maximize the area in between each pitch type (vertex) (Glynn). With these new tools, players and coaches can have a better understanding of what it’s like to face a pitcher’s arsenal in the batter's box. For instance, baseball fans can now look at a guy like Clayton Kershaw, and see exactly what makes his fastball/curveball pairing so filthy.
Having a large area in between each vertex means there is a large difference in total break between each pitch. For example, the Major League average four-seam fastball for a RHP has 20 inches of positive vertical break, and 12 inches of positive horizontal break, while the MLB average for a 12-6 curveball has 16 inches of negative vertical break, and 10 inches of negative horizontal break (Rapsodo). When comparing the two, there is a large difference in total movement, which results in more weak contact and swing and misses. With a large difference in total movement between pitches (large area in between vertices), pitchers can get hitters out based on pitch movement, and not necessarily velocity.
To highlight the effects a diverse set of movement profiles can have, let’s take a look at two D-1 college pitchers from Fordham University. For the sake of the analysis, we will refer to them as “Player A” and “Player B.” These two athletes were chosen because of their similarities in age, build, repertoire, velocity, and spin rates. Both staples on the Fordham University pitching staff, these two players have seen success. However, Player A has seen a level of success that is often quite rare at the collegiate level. Yet the two share similar repertoires, velocities, and spin rates, which are shown below.
When looking at each pitchers’ results however, Player A has simply outpaced Player B. When comparing each pitcher’s results-oriented statistics, the difference becomes clear. As shown below, Player A has excelled with a career 2.01 ERA, -0.32 FIP, and a 0.99 WHIP, while Player B has pitched to a 3.50 ERA, 3.22 FIP, and a 1.36 WHIP.
How can it be that two pitchers who share so many similarities in their repertoires, velocities, and spin rates can have such different results on the field? To answer this question, we can evaluate each individual’s movement profiles.
Provided below are the break charts for both Player A and Player B (*Note* Player B is a LHP and thus the break chart is mirrored). Upon first glance, one can clearly see the difference in area between these two players. Player A has a much larger difference in total break between pitches when compared to Player B. After calculating the total area in between the vertices, Player A comes in at 438.4 inches squared, while Player B sits at 163.8 inches squared. With the Major League average for the area of a total break chart being 356.06 squared inches, it is clear that Player A can be considered above average, while Player B is below average. So, what does this mean?
Quite simply, it means that Player A’s movement profiles lend themselves to weaker contact and more swing and misses (as seen below), which minimize his ERA, FIP, and WHIP. Player B however does not have a great difference in total break between pitches, which helps the hitter achieve stronger contact. So even though Player B has a higher fastball velocity and spin rate than Player A, his relatively small differences in total break result in batters finding stronger contact.
To demonstrate this point, let’s isolate these two pitcher’s fastballs and curveballs. For Player A, the difference in total break between these two pitches is 38.45 inches. For Player B, the difference is 29.76 inches. From a batter’s perspective, almost ten inches of total break can be eliminated when facing Player B. Not only does this provide a better chance for making contact, but it provides a better chance to make strong contact. When isolating Player A’s fastball and curveball, batters are slashing at a .164/.218/.225 clip, while batters facing Player B slash .254/.375/.351. Looking at just two pitches in their four-pitch arsenal, one can see the benefits of having a large difference in total break between pitches.
Two players. Similar repertoires, velocities, spin rates, and Bauer units, yet the results are very different. When looking at these two well-established D-1 pitchers, the key contrast seems to be their difference in total break between pitches. For old school scouts, they may look at Player B’s better velocity and spin rate and say, “this is our guy.” Although they would be getting a great pitcher with a lot of talent, passing on Player A would cost them dearly.
It’s worth mentioning however, that the one key caveat in this analysis is each pitchers ability to command his pitches. We assume that each pitcher is throwing his pitches where he wants and has strong command. Although both pitchers have been praised throughout their collegiate careers for their command, we must take it into consideration.
In this new age of baseball, break charts provide great value to coaches and players, whether it's for scouting purposes, player development purposes, or simple curiosity.
This was the first - of hopefully many - posts on this blog. In the coming years, my team and I are excited to see what we can bring to you on the front of sports analytics. We appreciate your support and hope you enjoyed.
Sources
Elliot Glynn, Fordham Baseball
Synergy Baseball