Thomas DePaola
Photo courtesy of Ezra Shaw of Getty Images
Russell Westbrook. James Harden. Allen Iverson. Kobe Bryant. Each of these explosive, high-scoring guards have held the title of league MVP and racked up many other accolades over their hall-of-fame careers. While they all have their own unique career narratives, each of them, at one point or another, was seen as a player who had to carry their team in order to succeed.
It was clear when you watched each of them play that they shouldered immense responsibility for their team’s successes when on the court, and their teams often struggled when they went to the bench. It is not just the eye test that supports this claim, however. Each of these players has had at least one season within the top 6 highest single-season usage rate percentages in NBA history.
What is usage rate?
Usage rate is an estimate of the percentage of team plays used by a player while he was on the floor. More specifically, it is the percentage of possessions where a possession ends with a specific player either shooting the ball, turning the ball over or getting to the free-throw line.
It is calculated with the following formula:
100 * ((Player FGA + 0.44 * Player FTA + Player TOV) * (Team MP / 5)) / (MP * (Team FGA + 0.44 * Team FTA + Team TOV)).
Usage rate is important in measuring how efficiently a player uses his scoring opportunities when he is on the court. Historically, there has been a trade-off between usage rate and efficiency - a player will often have a higher offensive rating (points generated per 100 possessions) for the drop of each percent of usage rate. What truly determines a player’s greatness is their ability to shoulder a large portion of their team’s possessions while experiencing a small decline in their own offensive efficiency.
NBA league average usage rate is approximately 20 percent, and most players who are considered ‘superstars’ in the league have a usage rate percentage that hovers around 26 to 28 percent. Any player who has a usage percentage north of 30 percent is often considered as a player who has a significant workload on the offensive end of the court.
Below is a chart which ranks the NBA's top-10 all-time single-season usage rates, as well as the result of their season.
Each of these players were the centerpieces of their team - and much of their team’s offensive game plan revolved around them having the ball in their hands. With the combination of their talent and the freedom to operate within the offense as they see fit, each of these players were able to produce impressive, and at times record-breaking, statistical seasons.
It's obvious that there exists a correlation between maintaining an extremely high usage rate over the course of a full season and the ability to have an MVP caliber season - as all of the players listed above, outside of Iverson and Cousins, finished in the top 4 for NBA MVP voting for their respective seasons.
However, the unfortunate reality is that this correlation has little to no impact on that player's team's success during the playoffs. When so much of a team’s offense is run by a single player, it makes it much easier for opposing defenses to game plan against them. In the playoffs, when teams go head to head for multiple games in a row, opposing coaches can zero in their team’s defensive schemes on any high-usage player. The end goal of most of these plans is simple: to shut down that high-usage player - and cause their team's offense, which relies so heavily upon their production, to crumble.
Of the players who qualified for the top 20 single-season usage rates, only Allen Iverson was able to advance to the NBA Finals, when his Philadelphia 76ers lost in a swift 5 games to the powerhouse Los Angeles Lakers.
Of the players who qualified for the top 10 single-season usage rates, only two of their teams advanced past the first round of the playoffs: James Harden and the Houston Rockets in 2019 and 2020 and Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks in 2020, both of which were eliminated in the second round.
High usage rates for individual players, especially at the extreme end of the scale, can also be an indictment of that player's teammates. There is a reason that the players with the highest usage rates are often seen as ones who have to “carry” their teams. While all NBA players are gifted at their craft, there are times when the abilities of a star player's teammates are simply not enough to keep the team competitive.
It is definitely not coincidence that the highest usage rate of Michael Jordan's career came the season before the Bulls drafted Scottie Pippen. Once more talented players were added to the Bulls’ roster, their offense became less centered around Jordan, which led to far more team success.
When examining the 2016-17 season of then-MVP Russell Westbrook, this is extremely evident. That season, Westbrook set the all-time record for single-season usage rate at 41.7%. In their first-round series loss, his Thunder outscored the Houston Rockets by 15 points with Westbrook on the floor. Russ had a positive plus-minus in each of the last four games and Games 2, 4, and 5 were arguably lost in the few minutes during which he rested.
The Thunder’s no-Westbrook issues weren’t quite as dramatic in the regular season, as they were 12.2 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor (plus-3.3) than with him off the floor (minus-8.9). Westbrook’s teammates were simply unable to get it done without him leading them on both offense and defense for a majority of the possessions.
Lack of support holds true within the remaining top 5 single-season usage rates. James Harden’s Rockets saw Chris Paul and Clint Capela miss a combined 39 games during his incredible 40.47% usage rate campaign. With regards to Bryant, Westbrook, and Jordan, each of them played their seasons without an established second star. When under the brightest lights, history has shown us that it is nearly impossible for a high usage player to succeed without a reliable teammate to keep their team afloat.
So, after examining the history of high single-season usage rates, one might suspect that it is nearly impossible for a team with a high usage rate superstar to win an NBA title. However, there exists some precedence which would suggest that teams comprised of a single high usage-rate player are not doomed for failure come playoffs.
Take the two aforementioned players: Giannis Antetokounmpo and James Harden. During the 2019-20 NBA season, Antetokounmpo led his Milwaukee Bucks to the best record in the NBA. At one point, the Bucks were on pace to win over 70 games and were poised to make an easy run through the Eastern Conference Playoffs to an NBA Finals berth. All of this was being done with Giannis posting the seventh-highest individual usage rate in NBA history at 37.54%, and performing at a level which earned him both the NBA Most Valuable Player and Defensive Player of the Year awards that year. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, his Bucks’ season was brought to a halt, and when the NBA finally resumed months later in the bubble, the team never really found their footing. The chemistry and continuity which is often so integral to a championship team were interrupted by uncontrollable circumstances.
During the 2017-18 NBA season, James Harden led the Houston Rockets to the best record in the NBA, winning 65 games. Harden secured the MVP award while posting what was at the time the 9th highest usage rate ever at 36.07%. Houston advanced easily through the first two rounds of the playoffs before meeting the Golden State Warriors in the Western Conference Finals. Houston was able to take a 3-2 series lead over Golden State, putting them in a strong position to advance to the NBA Finals.
However, star Rockets guard Chris Paul suffered a hamstring injury that held him out of games 6 and 7, which changed the dynamic of the series. Golden State was able to zero their defense in on Harden, beating the Rockets in both games and going on to win the NBA Finals in a sweep.
Both Antetokounmpo and Harden had high usage rates and were able to lead successful teams. Due to unusual circumstances, their teams were unable to live up to each of their potentials. While it is true that nearly every player that has posted an abnormally high usage rate has fallen far short of winning a title, these examples show that possibly to do so still exists.
Whether it be the game plans employed to stop high usage-rate players or a lack of teammate support, the road to a championship on a team built in this way is certainly a challenging one. But, in the immortal words of Kevin Garnett, “Anything is possible!”
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