Terence Kilkenny
“Drive for show, putt for dough” is one of the most commonly recited pieces of advice in the sport of golf, and has been for some time now. Anyone who has been around the game of golf can attest that the old saying is still credible some 300 years after its invention in Scotland. Yet, when it comes to the game at the modern professional level, this saying should not be deemed accurate.
Over the past few years, golf has undergone a substantial change in the way that golfers view their clubs. This shift is largely due to the fact that professional golfers are beginning to realize that longer drives are more conducive to lower scores than a consistent putting game.
This more driver-centric style of play has introduced a new sense of “swag” on tour. This can be seen in the way golfers dress and play, which has further popularized the sport in recent years. The main reason why these top-tier golfers are so successful is that they are driving the ball much further than ever before. To understand how increased driving distance correlates to a higher success rate, I analyzed the rankings from the PGA Tour for last season.
The FedExCup Standings are the primary mode of ranking golfers on the PGA Tour. They are based on the accumulation of points each golfer earns at each tournament. The higher a golfer finishes in a given tournament, the more FedExCup points they receive. Dustin Johnson placed the highest in the rankings at the end of the 2020 season and won the FedExCup. Other notable high finishers included Justin Thomas (#2), Xander Shauffele (#3), John Rahm (#4), Rory McIlory (T-#8), Tony Finau (#17), Bryson Dechambeau (#22), and Cameron Champ (T-#24).
*Image via Coastal Golfaway
Looking at the FedExCup standings and corresponding driving distances from the 2020 season, we see a high level of correlation between higher rankings and an increased average driving distance. The scatter plot below displays the relationship between the FedExCup rankings and players’ average driving distances for the 2020 season.
*All statistics taken from PGA Tour Statistics Website
We see that a large majority of players in the top 25 drive the ball on average 10 to 15 yards longer than the tour average distance, which is represented by the orange vertical line.
The trendline illustrates how a majority of top 25 players have greater driving distances than the average on tour. The tour average driving distance is 296.4 yards, which over 84% of golfers within the top 25 of the FedExCup rankings surpassed last season. More specifically, the trendline runs downward slightly within the top 25, showing that many players in the top 10 have increased average distance off the tee. It is also important to note that these heavy hitters can produce some drives upwards of 330 yards when slope is factored in, making the driver a weapon that could make a long par 5 reachable in two shots, and a short par 4 reachable in one shot.
Based on my findings, one of the keys to success on tour is having optimal average driving distance. The top 5 ranked golfers in the FedExCup in 2020 all had an average driving distance within 304-311 yards; this range of distance is about 10 to 15 yards longer on average than the PGA Tour average of 296 yards. Only 5 out of the other top 25 ranked golfers had an average driving distance greater than 311 yards - and they did not rank within the top 5 of the final FedExCup rankings. Based on these findings, it seems that the optimal average driving distance is between 304 and 311 yards.
While the above graph proves that the most successful golfers in the sport tend to drive the ball the furthest, does driving accuracy factor into their success? The rankings for driving accuracy suggest that fairways hit, though helpful, are not the end-all-be-all in terms of overall season success. None of the popular golfers mentioned before have a particularly high driving accuracy, or the ratio of fairways hit to possible fairways. In fact, nobody ranked in the top 10 in the FedExCup were also ranked in the top 30 in driving accuracy.
Driving distance and accuracy aside, the best way to evaluate the impact of a golfer's ability to drive the ball is through strokes gained. Strokes gained is a statistic that defines where specifically golfers gain or lose strokes in a round. Furthermore, strokes gained determines the number of strokes a player gains or loses after he hits a specific shot; at the end of the round, a player could have gained percentages of strokes by sinking long putts or consistently driving the ball far. For a clear and fleshed-out explanation, click here to understand what strokes gained means.
This statistic was further simplified to show which players gain the most strokes from putting and driving. The top 10 leaders in strokes gained putting and driving can be seen below.
*All statistics taken from PGA Tour Statistics Website
We see a large overlap in the chart above between high FedExCup rankers and those players who led the tour in strokes gained off the tee, as opposed to those who led in strokes gained putting. Out of the top 10 players in strokes gained off the tee, 4 finished in the top 10 in the FedExCup, and 6 finished in the top 25. Also, the eleventh best player in strokes gained off the tee was Dustin Johnson, who won the FedExCup.
When looking at the leaders in strokes gained putting, only two players were also ranked in the top 10 in the FedExCup; also, one of those players, Xander Shauffele, was one of the leaders in strokes gained off the tee. A lack of correlation confirms the importance of strokes gained off the tee as opposed to strokes gained putting.
*Image via Golf Channel Website
Aside from just FedExCup rankings, one can also see the importance of driving distance when looking at recent major championship and tour event winners. Most recently, the 2020 U.S. Open winner was Bryson DeChambaeu, who ranked 22nd in the FedExCup and averaged 1.039 strokes gained off the tee in 2020. Dustin Johnson won the 2016 U.S. Open, 2020 Tour Championship, the 2021 Masters Tournament, and was the 2020 FedExCup Champion with an average of .612 strokes gained off the tee that year. Justin Thomas won the 2017 PGA Championship, was the 2017 FedExCup Champion and had an average of .405 strokes gained off the tee in 2020, finishing second in the 2020 FedExCup. Brooks Koepka, who recently returned from injury and is another heavy hitter who averages a drive over 300 yards, won the 2017 U.S. Open, 2018 U.S. Open, 2018 PGA Championship, and 2019 PGA Championship. In 2019, he averaged .468 strokes gained off the tee, and finished tied for third in the FedExCup.
As seen in the paragraph above, long drivers have tended to win when in championship play. Championship or major tournament course layouts tend to be the longest and hardest courses to play. A long drive and competitive strokes gained average off the tee are the best weapons to have when it comes to contending on the longest, most challenging courses. Being able to gain strokes on these championship courses with a driver proves to be beneficial in terms of tournament success.
Given the success long drivers have had, it is interesting to think about possible rule changes that could be made to increase the difficulty of the game. Will golf balls be altered such that they cannot travel as far? Will equipment need to be duffed in order to make the game any more difficult for the pros? These are very interesting questions, with many possible answers, which breeds a lot of debate. These conversations are for another article entirely, but one truth still remains: golf is changing, and so will one of its most sacred phrases. While it is still important to be able to sink long putts in order to remain the best, golfers increase their odds of scoring if they consistently drive the ball further. In understanding the success a drive upwards of 300 yards is currently giving to top pros, it has become crucial for golfers to strengthen their average distance off the tee; to really play for dough, a 300 yard-plus average drive is not just a weapon anymore, but a necessity.
Sources
* All statistics via PGA Tour Statistics and PGA Tour Golfer Profile Websites.
Coastal. “What Is The Longest Drive In A PGA Tour Event? - Coastal Golfaway.” Coastal Golfaway - Great Golf Packages, Coastal Golfaway, 16 Mar. 2018, www.coastalgolfaway.com/longest-drive-on-record/.
Golf Channel Digital September 20, 2020 at 6:14 PM, et al. “What's in the Bag: U.S. Open Champion Bryson DeChambeau.” Golf Channel, www.golfchannel.com/news/whats-bag-us-open-champion-bryson-dechambeau.
“Golf Stat and Records: PGA TOUR.” PGATour, www.pgatour.com/stats.html.
“What Is Strokes Gained In Golf?: PGA Tour Betting Strategy.” The Lines, 16 Nov. 2020, www.thelines.com/betting/golf-betting/what-is-strokes-gained/.