In the wake of a disappointing 2021 season ending in a 4-13 record, the 2022 New York Giants ignited the NFL world with a surprising 4-1 start to the new year. Despite this strong start, the NFL community world remained skeptical, attributing the Giants record largely to an easy schedule with some lucky breaks and claiming they would ‘fall off’ as the season progressed. As the year unfolded, the Giants would continue to defy expectations, clinching a playoff berth with a record of 9-7-1 and stunning the 13-4 Minnesota Vikings in the Wild Card round. With their season a clear success, the question remains: were people wrong to doubt the Giants? Or were they an outlier in a history of teams that flamed out?
What is a Bad Team?:
To dissect this question, it's essential to define what constitutes a 'bad team.' For our purposes, a 'bad team' refers to any team that finished the previous season with a top-10 draft position. Conversely, a 'hot start' denotes a team that achieved a 3-2 record or better in their first five games. Over the past five years, out of 50 eligible teams, 13 have achieved hot starts, with seven of them securing playoff berths. Notably, both the Bengals and the 49ers made playoff runs that saw them advance to the Super Bowl. This data suggests that hot starts have a greater chance of translating into playoff appearances than one might first expect.
Just Win Games:
Naturally, the number of games won during the team’s start is a strong indicator of predicting a team's success. Teams with more wins in their initial five games had significantly better odds of reaching the playoffs. For instance, the 5-0 49ers boasted the best ending record among the group, finishing 13-3, while every team that started 4-1 also clinched playoff spots. On the other hand, 3-2 teams found less success, with only two out of eight making the playoffs in 2018 (Bears) and 2019 (Bengals). This 25% figure is lower than the league-average playoff odds of 55% for 3-2 teams, indicating that many of these teams might have exceeded expectations due to additional factors.
Despite the correlation between the record and playoff appearances, it's essential to delve deeper into the factors behind sustaining a strong start. One commonly examined statistic is a team's strength of schedule (SOS). The belief that bad teams may rack up wins against other bad teams but struggle against higher-quality opponents is common in the football world. Hot start teams did indeed tend to face easier initial schedules, with an average opponent winning percentage of .443. Even good teams can sometimes struggle to start strong when facing tough schedules, so the easier SOS makes sense in this regard. While an easier schedule is more conducive for a strong start, a team’s SOS wasn’t a reliable indicator of their season-long performance. Teams with challenging SOS during the first five weeks, such as the 2019 Raiders and the 2022 Jets, surprisingly missed the playoffs, despite seemingly having proven themselves against tougher opponents. The 2018 Bears, who went 3-2 against the third easiest schedule of the teams, would go on to win 9 of 11 against a schedule tougher than their first 5 weeks. Pointing to an easy strength of schedule isn’t enough to condemn a team as fraudulent.
Quarterback Impact:
Given the paramount importance of quarterbacks in football, it's natural to assume that the quality of QB play is a key indicator of a team's success. Having a quarterback returning from injury was an important signal, demonstrated by the return of Jimmy Garoppolo and Dak Prescott from season ending injuries. Both QBs would lead their teams to double digit win seasons, with the 49ers making it to the Super Bowl. If either quarterback had avoided injury the previous season, their teams would likely have finished outside the bottom 10 in the league and not met the ‘bad’ criteria.
The correlation between initial QB play and team success would end up being less significant than expected surprisingly. Common metrics like Adjusted Expected Points Added (EPA) and Completion Percent Over Expected (CPOE) over the first five weeks displayed minimal correlation with team success, while alternative QB stats like PFF ratings yielded similar results. For instance, Denver QB Teddy Bridgewater had the highest EPA+CPOE and a top 5 PFF grade of hot start QB through the first 5 weeks, yet the Broncos finished a disappointing 7-10.
*Note: Joe Flacco started Weeks 1-3 for the Jets, with Wilson starting Weeks 4 & 5.
This apparent lack of QB impact suggests that it can be challenging to judge a quarterback's performance based solely on the first five weeks of a season, especially when facing potentially weaker defenses. Zach Wilson started the season with respectable PFF grades of 69.1 and 81.9 before playing poorly the rest of the year, recording only one other game with a PFF grade over 60.
Are They Just Playing Well?:
Looking at teams’ overall PFF grades gives a stronger indication of team success. While a broad metric, adding a teams’ overall Offensive and Defensive PPF grades together provides a strong predictor of how successful a team will be throughout the season.
The outliers on this graph are the Broncos, Cardinals, and Giants. The Broncos and Cardinals appear to have overperformed due to facing exceptionally easy schedules through five weeks. While SOS is generally not a good predictor, playing opponents with winning percentages averaging .333 and .313 appears drastic enough to have significantly inflated their play.
The Giants present a more intriguing case. Despite having the worst combined PFF score among hot start teams, they managed a 4-1 start and went on to win a playoff game. One factor to examine is the closeness of the games they won. All of their four wins were one-score games, with them winning by an average of 4.25 points. Especially close was their opener against the Titans, where they won on a last second missed field goal. According to NFL projections for 2022, the Giants were deemed the luckiest team, benefiting from +1.20 additional wins due to favorable outcomes in areas more influenced by luck, such as turnovers, field goals, and fumbles. This good luck helped them win close games they would have otherwise lost. If the Titans had made their field goal, the Giants would have finished 8-8-1 and missed the playoffs. This is not to say that the Giants record was entirely a result of luck; if they had been losing by 14 a missed field goal would not have been impactful. But it does illustrate the volatility present in one score games.
Another example of this was the Giants’ playoff opponent, the 13-4 Minnesota Vikings. While a good team throughout the year, their record was higher than analytics would imply due to going an NFL record 11-0 in one score games. The Vikings also finished with the fifth highest win probability of +0.84. While close games went in the Vikings’ favor last year, the volatility of one score games has been on full display in 2023. They currently have an 0-3 record and a league worst -39.0% win probability added, with all their losses coming in one score games.
In conclusion, the story of 'bad' teams with hot starts in the NFL is a complex one. While initial success can often be attributed to an easier schedule, it's not a reliable predictor of season-long performance. Quarterback play, although crucial, may not reveal its true impact in the early weeks of a season. Instead, a holistic view of a team's overall performance, as well as the ability to excel in high-variance, one-score games, emerges as key factors in maintaining a strong start. It’s also worth noting that there are other potential factors, even those influenced by luck, that contribute to a team’s hot start. Ultimately, The New York Giants' remarkable 2022 season serves as a testament to the intricate and unpredictable nature of NFL success, where defying expectations can become the norm.
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